Approaches to understand resilience of marine resources

Resilience of complex natural systems ranging from populations to ecosystems is a key concept in management guidelines. Yet, resilience is hard to measure from empirical data. Among other issues, statistical models to evaluate resilience must consider non-linearity, possible abrupt shifts and the interactions among multiple drivers. Here, I present different ways in which we have estimated resilience, defined as the ability of the system to maintain stability, in different fish populations, such as Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) but also in ecosystems, such as the North Sea. We used different methodological approaches, ranging from the stochastic cusp model, from catastrophe theory, to Empirical Dynamic modelling and in particular Convergent Cross Mapping and to a new proposed method, the CUSPRA. These different methodological approaches can help to estimate resilience in marine ecosystems and thus can help management to maintain ecosystems within safe operating space.

09.07.2021 - Online